Tariffs, trade wars and the future of globalisation.
Marek Dietl. Former CEO of the Warsaw Stock Exchange and current economic adviser to the President of Poland. Previously a partner in a global pricing consultancy.
The most-cited guest on the show so far, and the conversation justifies the billing. Dietl walks us through tariffs at four levels: geopolitical realignment, industrial protection, fiscal lever, and corporate pricing discipline. The framing alone is worth the listen, because most coverage collapses all four into one and stops thinking.
Three insights stayed with me afterwards. First, the United States is the biggest beneficiary of the current sanctions regime against Russia, because high-marginal-cost US shale gas is only economic at the prices the sanctions sustain; "decoupling" is therefore a much less likely outcome than the news cycle suggests. Second, South Africa under AGOA was the single largest African exporter to the US, which makes the September renewal a quietly important moment for the entire continent, not just Pretoria. Third, on a personal note, Dietl is currently going through a five-to-seven-year clearance process that has effectively barred him from running another EU financial institution despite no accusation against him. The quiet damage that regulatory inertia does to senior careers is a story that is not being told enough.
His closing advice: do not overreact to the noise; quality pushes through.